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2019 ATP US Open predictions


2019 ATP US Open predictions

In advance of the draw, this preview looks at the men’s singles event at the 2019 US Open and asks the question - is there anyone capable of testing the elite three?

The US Open is the final Grand Slam of 2019, and after the last 11 Grand Slams - a run stemming back to this event in 2016 - have been won by one of the elite trio (Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer), the age-old debate continues. Despite their increasing age, is there anyone able to compete with three players who could all have a reasonable argument to be the greatest of all time?

Assessing court conditions at US Open 2019

Conditions at Flushing Meadows may have some slight impact in considerations. Across the last three years at the US Open, men have won 62.5% of service points, down from the 63.7% ATP hard court mean during this time period.

Furthermore, the 0.49 aces per game count is 0.07 aces per game below the 0.56 ATP hard court average, and all this suggests that court speed in New York will be on the slower side of medium-paced.

This, in theory, should not suit Roger Federer, who is currently priced at 6.91*. The Swiss legend tends to do his best work in quicker conditions and in fact, his venue record here suggests that he struggles with a little slower courts here as well - he’s not lifted the trophy at the US Open since 2008. Since then, Nadal and Djokovic have won it three times apiece.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if these conditions suited Nadal, who would probably want the courts to play as slowly as possible. Having won the Montreal Masters several weeks ago - also on hard court - he skipped Cincinnati to ensure he is well rested here, and is available at a slightly shorter price 4.98* than Federer.

Can anyone stop Djokovic the favourite?

However, Djokovic is the tournament favourite, and at Pinnacle the world number one is odds-on, priced at 1.925*.

However, he didn’t play in Montreal and was defeated in the semi-finals of Cincinnati by the rapidly improving Russian, Daniil Medvedev. He’s only played that event, plus Wimbledon (winner) and the French Open (lost in the semi-finals to Dominic Thiem), since mid-May.

The table below shows the 2019 hard court hold/break data for all top ten ATP players, and players priced below 80.00 in the current outright market:-

2019 US Open top ten ATP players

Player

2019 hard court service hold %

2019 hard court break opponent %

2019 hard court combined %

Rafa Nadal

92.4

33.3

125.7

Novak Djokovic

87.6

33.5

121.1

Roger Federer

93.8

23.7

117.5

Daniil Medvedev

86.3

29.5

115.8

Roberto Bautista-Agut

88.4

23.4

111.8

David Goffin

78.4

28.6

107.0

Denis Shapovalov

84.4

21.9

106.3

Kevin Anderson

87.3

18.0

105.3

Milos Raonic

91.8

12.9

104.7

Kei Nishikori

80.8

23.9

104.7

Stefanos Tsitsipas

88.1

16.3

104.4

Felix Auger Aliassime

81.5

22.8

104.3

Alexander Zverev

78.1

25.0

103.1

Karen Khachanov

82.0

20.5

102.5

Nick Kyrgios

89.5

13.0

102.5

Karen Khachanov

82.0

20.5

102.5

Dominic Thiem

84.7

16.1

100.8

Marin Cilic

84.6

16.0

100.6

Stan Wawrinka

84.4

14.7

99.1

Perhaps surprisingly, Nadal leads this table from Djokovic, and while he looks to have an advantage here, it’s probably worth noting that the duo’s combined service/return points won percentage across the same sample is pretty similar - Nadal has just played the key points a little better.

Both are certainly in the elite-level bracket (in excess of 120% ensures that) while Federer marginally edges the aforementioned improver, Medvedev, into third place.

Given that Federer is behind both Nadal and Djokovic based on these metrics, and is unlikely to enjoy the medium-slow conditions, it would be difficult to make a case for the Swiss legend at prices, although it is always difficult to rule out such a superb competitor.

Medvedev and Roberto Bautista-Agut both have strong hard court numbers this year, and Medvedev, at 23 years of age, has reached three consecutive finals in August, at Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati.

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However, stats would suggest that - like Federer - he does a little better in quicker conditions and in a best of five set format, there may be question marks about how much accumulated fatigue he has derived from those three finals in three weeks recently.

As for Bautista-Agut, the 31 year old Spaniard is a solid competitor and has just broken into the top 10 for the first time.

A suspicion remains that he struggles against the elite players - he’s not won in 12 consecutive matches when priced at 6.00+ and has barely taken a set in these clashes either - and given that he is likely to need to beat two elite players to lift the trophy, success for him may be a run to the semi-finals, as he did at Wimbledon several months ago.

Outsiders to consider at US Open 2019

In truth, there isn’t a great deal to split the remaining players priced below 80.00* - all will be capable of beating each other on their given day.

Certainly, there are a few players who look a little over-rated by this outright market based on the above numbers - Nick Kyrgios, Dominic Thiem and Stan Wawrinka spring to mind - but Kyrgios, in particular, is capable of an extremely high peak level and has the potential to be a man for the big stage.

Players priced bigger than this line with potential for a big run here include Gael Monfils, although the Frenchman may not be fit after injuring his ankle at Montreal.

However, if fit, he has an excellent hard court record and could potentially represent a better long-shot option than many of the players listed above.

Borna Coric would be another who fits this criteria, but the Croat also has had fitness issues as well, as has the talented Korean, Hyeon Chung.

23 year old Chung is just making his way back to main tour via Challengers, but possesses a ton of upside - his run to the semi-finals of the 2018 Australian Open is enough evidence of that alone

Get the best US Open 2019 odds with Pinnacle

*Odds subject to change

 

 


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