Get the latest news, bonuses and promotions!
neteller
asianconnect88
william hill
Betway Sports EN Logo
iGame

Outright Premier League betting: 2019/20 Premier League preview


Outright Premier League betting: 2019/20 Premier League preview

Where is the value in Pinnacle’s Premier League outright betting odds? This article uses Pinnacle’s projected points for each team to predict the Premier League table. Who are the Premier League teams bettors should be aware of this season? Read on to find out.

Get the best odds on epl betting

Bet on the 19/20 Premier League season at Pinnacle

2019/20 Premier League table prediction: What do the odds say?

This is the predicted Premier League table based upon Pinnacle’s Premier League over/under points totals:

Position

Team

18/19 points

19/20 projected points

1

Manchester City

98

90.5

2

Liverpool

97

83.5

3

Chelsea

72

68.5

4

Tottenham

71

74.5

5

Arsenal

70

70.5

6

Manchester United

66

67.5

7

Wolves

57

52.5

8

Everton

54

52.5

9

Leicester City

52

52.5

10

West Ham

52

46.5

11

Watford

50

43.5

12

Crystal Palace

49

45.5

13

Newcastle United

45

43.5

14

Bournemouth

45

42.5

15

Burnely

40

38.5

16

Southampton

39

41.5

17

Brighton

36

38.5

18

Norwich

N/A

N/A

19

Sheffield United

N/A

N/A

20

Aston Villa

N.A

N/A

This is the points change from 2018/19 to 2019/20 implied by Pinnacle’s projected point totals:

Premier League Projected Points change

Team

Point change

Manchester City

-7.5

Liverpool

-14.5

Chelsea

-3.5

Tottenham

+3.5

Arsenal

+0.5

Manchester United

+1.5

Wolves

-4.5

Everton

-1.5

Leicester City

+0.5

West Ham

-5.5

Watford

-6.5

Crystal Palace

-3.5

Newcastle

-1.5

Bournemouth

-2.5

Bunrley

-1.5

Southampton

+2.5

Brighton

+2.5

Pinnacle’s point totals anticipate Tottenham improving upon their 2018/19 campaign. Their North London Rivals Arsenal are also expected to improve, and Pinnacle's odds project that the Gunners will secure a Champions League spot whilst last season’s runaway leaders – Manchester City and Liverpool - are expected to regress on their points tally.

However, are Pinnacle’s projected points a fair reflection of these team’s abilities?

Premier League 18/19 expected points vs 19/20 projections

Expected points use expected goals data to calculate the number of points a team can expect to win based on the quality and quantity of shots taken by themselves and their opponents in individual matches.

Looking at last season’s expected points data should help to isolate any teams who over or underperformed. The teams whose seasons varied significantly from this statistic may regress to the mean during the 2019/20 season.

Team

2018/19 expected points

19/20 projected points

Difference

Manchester City

90.64

90.5

-0.14

Liverpool

83.45

83.5

+0.05

Chelsea

71.45

68.5

-3.05

Tottenham

61.44

74.5

+13.06

Arsenal

58.97

70.5

+11.47

Manchester United

61.86

67.5

+5.64

Wolves

59.91

52.5

-7.41

Everton

55.54

52.5

-3.04

Leicester City

56.24

52.5

-3.74

West Ham

43.72

46.5

+2.78

Watford

46.00

43.5

-2.50

Crystal Palace

51.93

45.5

-6.43

Newcastle United

39.22

43.5

+4.28

Bournemouth

51.49

42.5

-8.99

Burnley

42.00

38.5

-3.5

Southampton

45.11

41.5

-3.61

Brighton

36.19

38.5

+2.31

Looking at last season’s expected points data should help to isolate any teams who over or underperformed. The teams whose seasons varied significantly from this statistic may regress to the mean during the 2019/20 season.

As you can see from the table, Bournemouth's 2018/19 expected points total of 51.49 suggested their actual point return last season of 45 was actually a marginal underperformance compared to their expected points. This flags them up as a potential value selection compared to Pinnacle’s point totals.

The expected points from last season show that Tottenham were fortunate to get a tally of 71 points, and are projected to improve on their 17/18 showing with the signings of Tanguy Ndombele and, potentially, Giovani Lo Celso. Last season’s 71 point total was over ten points more than their expected total.

Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City perhaps show the limitations of using expected points data. They all considerably outperformed their expected goals for and against last season so the data does not reflect the quality of their players.

However, it is worth bettors noting that The Gunners outperformed their xG in three categories over the course of the season, and they outperformed their xG by 8.20.

This means that they should have recorded around eight fewer goals. This type of form is hardly ever sustainable. Currently, Arsenal depend on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette for goals far too much, and although they have created a terrific partnership together, Unai Emery will likely need to find more goals from other areas of the pitch if they are to improve upon last season’s points tally.

Outright Premier League betting: Who will win the Premier League title?

Manchester City are rated as being a full seven points ahead of Liverpool in the race for the title. The teams were very evenly matched last season when it came to actual points but City held a superior expected points tally, which highlights that Liverpool were actually fortunate to achieve their tally despite playing superbly throughout the campaign. The chances of Liverpool repeating a total of 97 points is extremely optimistic.

City profited from having such a deep squad, which was needed when injuries to key players such as Kevin de Bruyne occurred. Pep Guardiola's side may need to bring in another striker as backup to Aguero, who is now getting on in years for a striker and has a history of picking up injuries throughout the season. Gabriel Jesus could prove to be the answer but it might be risky to rely on the Brazilian to lead the line throughout such a rigorous campaign.

The remaining four of the 'top six' sides have all improved their squads, apart from Chelsea (who are banned from signing players during the next two transfer windows until the end of January 2020). The blues are projected to be a further four points back from last season's campaign and Frank Lampard will be unable to replace star player Eden Hazard, so a top-four finish would be regarded as another success. Christian Pulisic (signed last season) is an exciting addition and will be hoping to make an instant impact, but it will unlikely be enough to mount a serious title challenge.

In terms of winning the Premier League title, Manchester United and Arsenal are not expected to challenge until they address their issues in key areas of the pitch. Tottenham, with the signings of Ndombele and Lo Celso in key areas of the pitch mean they are the most likely side to challenge this season but are still projected to finish 16 points behind Manchester City, highlighting the unlikelihood of a first Premier League title.

Pep Guardiola's side are available at 1.588* to defend their Premier League crown and could offer value at those odds.

Making Premier League season predictions

When betting on points totals and Premier League outrights bettors should be aware of a team’s expected and actual performance.

Given that their strong 18/19 season is backed up by impressive statistics Wolves look like a team to watch. They are available at 2.520* to win over 52.5 Points this season and this could represent value to bettors.

Bettors should monitor any transfers away from clubs that will weaken them in key areas. Crystal Palace are projected to gain 45.5 points this season based on Pinnacle's odds, and they over performed this with a tally of 51.93 expected points last season. However, star player Wilfred Zaha has been linked with a move to Arsenal this summer, and their chances of achieving this total would regress if he were to be sold.

Leicester City, although they have made improvements to their squad, could lose their key defender in Harry Maguire to Manchester United, which would also make it harder for them to outperform their projected points tally. The Premier League transfer window remains open until August 9.

Manchester United are a team who may see their point total drop from last season. The Reds over performed their expected points, expected goals, and expected goals against tally. They look likely to lose Romelu Lukaku, a proven goalscorer at Premier League level, whilst the future of Paul Pogba remains uncertain, despite being a player who was a key part of last season’s over performance.

United can be backed at 2.270* to gain under 67.5 points and that could prove to be a sensible bet considering last season’s potential over performance.

Bet with Pinnacle for the best Premier League odds ahead of the 20819/20 season.

*Odds subject to change

 

 



pinnacle 
Do you want to be informed about bookmakers' latest promotions? Click  and subscribe!



https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles
Chris McCarthy
bet365
BetOnline
EcoPayz
1xbet
Youwager
888sport
10bet
%ALT_TXT%%
0percent soccer
PokerStars