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Oscars odds analysis: What makes Oscars betting unique?


Oscars odds analysis: What makes Oscars betting unique?

The Oscars odds have been posted and as ever, there is potential value to be had if you know why Oscars betting is different to betting on traditional sports. Read on to find out how analysing previous Oscars odds and results can help you develop a profitable strategy.

With sports betting, bettors are accustomed to betting on markets with a massive amount of incomplete information in the form of the actual playing out of a game or match.

We know in advance who is playing, a team’s momentum, injury status on assorted players and many other factors that help us estimate the probability of the likely outcomes. While there are plenty of indicators on which to base predictions, predictions just aren’t as good as a pre-formed resolution. The winners of the Oscars (also known as Acadamy Awards) are known before they are announced, but does that mean there is value on offer when it comes to Oscars betting?

Oscars betting: 91st Academy Awards odds

Best Actor

Odds*

Best Actress

Odds*

Best Picture

Odds*

Rami Malek

1.248

Glenn Close

1.214

Roma

1.377

Christian Bale

3.98

Olivia Coleman

5.93

Green Book

5.420

Bradley Cooper

23.79

Lady Gaga

9.00

The Favourite

13.08

Viggo Mortensen

65.64

Yalitza Aparicio

21.84

A Star is Born

14.910

Willem Dafoe

167.69

Melissa McCarthy

91.07

Bohemian Rhapsody

19.49

-

-

-

-

BlackKKlansman

26.32

-

-

-

-

Black Panther

32.39

-

-

-

-

Vice

78.66

Ready to bet on the Oscars?

View all of the available markets and see if you can find the value.

Why is Oscars betting different to sports betting?

Academy Awards betting differs from sports markets in that the results are based on predetermined information. Voters submit their votes long before the actual awards are presented (which takes place on February 24 this year). The markets were open as soon as nominations were announced on January 22 and while they stay open until the awards ceremony, the deciding votes are actually tallied almost a week before the event.

That gives bettors a month to look at the contenders, collect as much information as possible and look analyse historical patterns that will help inform any potential bets. The thing is, it’s a race against the market as bettors around the globe are chasing the same information in the name of getting ahead before prices adjust to information being assimilated.

It all makes for a fascinating game of cat and mouse, with potential profit available to bettors, but only if they strike at the right time. The question then is how do you win this game and get the best information possible?

How do winners’ odds behave?

The below table contains collected data on last years winners from the three big awards, the result being the emergence of some interesting patterns. First, it’s worth noting that even beyond last year, short favourites generally get shorter as the ceremony draws closer.

In fact, in 2015, all ten markets offered saw the supportive information on eventual winners influence the market to make their prices shorten. Below is the odds movement for the Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress in last year's Oscars odds.

2018 Oscars odds movement

-

Opening odds

Highest odds

Closing odds

Best Picture

-

-

-

Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

2.13

2.57

1.53

The Shape of Water (W)

2.18

2.41

2.41

Get Out

23.47

23.47

10.90

Lady Bird

9.21

14.99

11.31

Dunkirk

27.20

31.97

31.97

The Post

40.25

49.44

41.94

Phantom Thread

95.88

117.39

65.64

Call Me By Your Name

97.32

97.32

97.32

Darkest Hour

116.24

143.45

143.45

-

-

-

-

Best Actor

-

-

-

Gary Oldman (W)

1.07

1.07

1.04

Timothee Chalamet

14.24

14.24

14.24

Daniel Kaluuya

14.69

16.14

16.14

Daniel Day-Lewis

19.89

21.85

21.85

Danzel Washington

25.93

28.49

28.49

-

-

-

-

Best Actress

-

-

-

Frances McDormand (W)

1.18

1.18

1.09

Saoirse Ronan

8.83

9.21

8.12

Sally Hawkins

10.00

10.31

10.31

Margot Robbie

29.80

29.80

29.80

Meryl Streep

38.70

45.16

45.16

There isn't much to take from the movement of eventual individual winners Gary Oldman and Frances McDormand - both started as short favourites and both were still short favourites when the market closed (the opening odds for both were the highest they ever were). The big story from 2018 was the battle for Best Picture between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water.

While the market suggested Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was the likely winner as it shortened to 1.53 after an initial minor drift to 2.57 from 2.13, it was actually The Shape of Water that came out on top (despite opening at 2.18 and drifting out to 2.41). Although these two always looked like the main contenders, there was plenty of interesting action on Get Out as it shortened from 23.47 to 10.91 in the lead up to the awards.

Which organisation has the highest predicting rate?

Even before the Academy’s month of lead-up to the Oscars, there is plenty of information out there for bettors to use in order to narrow their searches for an eventual winner. Award ceremonies from other organisations go a long way towards predicting Oscar success.

The Golden Globes, Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards have proven particularly adept, with their respective memberships often overlapping with the Academy.

Cumulatively, the three organisations combine to accurately predict winners in the acting categories over 70% of the time, while the Globes and Critics combining to correctly predict the Best Picture Award more than 60% of the time. It’s worth noting the SAG is far less accurate with Best Picture as it prioritises less-technical aspects of filmmaking.

The Critics are particularly adept at picking Best Director, with 18 of the 24 such recipients going on to win the Oscar as well (a 75% strike rate). Clearly, while a bet should not be made alone based on this information, these are strong indicators on which to build a case.

The Critics Choice Awards were announced on January 14 with Roma picking up Best Picture, Christian Bale Best Actor and Glenn Close and Lady Gaga in a tie for Best Actress.

The Golden Globes winners were announced on January 6 with Rami Malek and Glenn Close picking up the major individual honours (these two are the clear favourites in the Oscars odds). Bohemian Rhapsody (one of the outsiders in the Best Picture odds for this year's Oscards) was awarded Best Motion Picture.

The most recent awards, hosted by the Screen Actors Guild, were on January 27 with Rami Malek (Best Male Actor) and Gelnn (Best Actress) winning again and Black Panther picking up Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture (the equivalent to Best Picture).

Keeping an eye on the talking heads

One last key to following the progress of Oscar markets is following talking heads. It’s human to want opinions to be heard and to earn expert status through their expression and the Hollywood community is a tightly knit one whose members enjoy access to plenty of information that can prove useful.

One instance where this phenomenon was particularly helpful was the infamous ascent of Birdman’s (Best Picture) and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Best Director) from long shot to favourite in 2015. While the film missed out on awards from both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, there was enough talk surrounding the film to project it to victory over presumptive winner Boyhood. Simply, the critics who favoured Birdman talked it up so much that the betting public saw the winds of change.

So, the question is; can you get your bets in quickly enough to get good value? Will you see the winners coming? If you’re up to the challenge, place your bets as early on as possible with the best Oscars odds online at Pinnacle.

*Odds subject to change

 

 


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https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles
Benjamin Cronin
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