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Premier League preview: Manchester City vs. Arsenal

Premier League preview: Manchester City vs. Arsenal

Our highlight fixture in the Premier League this weekend comes from Etihad Stadium as Manchester City take on Arsenal. Looking for value in the Manchester City vs. Arsenal odds? Read on to inform your Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction.

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A close look at the Manchester City vs. Arsenal odds

With home advantage, the 1X2 odds make Manchester City heavy favourites at odds of 1.327*, to beat Arsenal. The implied probability of a win for Pep Guardiola’s side is around 75%*.

The over/under Total is set at 3.5 which means the betting market is expecting goals with over 3.5 Goals, currently priced at 1.990*.

Time: Sunday, February 3, 16:30 UTC kick-off

Venue: Etihad Stadium

Manchester City vs. Arsenal predicted lineups

Manchester City predicted lineup

(4-3-3) Ederson, Walker, Stones, Laporte, Danilo, Fernandinho, De Bruyne, D. Silva, Sterling, Sane, Aguero

Manchester City team news:

Vincent Kompany is unavailable due to injury, meaning John Stones and Aymeric Laporte should start in central defence.

Goalkeeper Ederson’s appearance is also doubtful after sustaining a badly cut leg in midweek against Newcastle.

It is possible Pep Guardiola will reshuffle his side after a disappointing loss to Newcastle in midweek.

Arsenal predicted lineup

(3-4-3) Leno, Mustafi, Monreal, Koscielny, Maitland-Niles, Kolasinac, Xhaka, Guendouzi, Lacazette, Aubameyang, Iwobi

Arsenal team news:

Arsenal will have limited players to choose from in defence with recent injuries to Hector Bellerin, Sokratis Papastathopoulos, and Laurent Koscielny, although Koscielny could be forced to start with Mavropanos lacking match sharpness.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal expected goals stats

• Manchester City expected goals per game: 2.42

• Manchester City expected goals against per game: 0.79

• Manchester City expected points per game: 2.28

• Arsenal expected goals per game: 1.67

• Arsenal expected goals against per game: 1.32

• Arsenal expected points per game: 1.61

Inform your Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction

Manchester City come into the fixture with Arsenal off the back of a surprise midweek away defeat to Newcastle. With home advantage against Arsenal, City will need to be back to their best to record a result that the odds are suggesting.

The Citizens were in fine form before the loss and it will be a test of their character and title aspirations on Sunday. The Etihad has been a fortress for them this season, winning eleven out of twelve matches, whilst averaging 3.3 goals per home game, and eleven of their twelve home fixtures produced over 2.5 goals.

Based on expected goals, the reigning champions have been the best team in the Premier League this term despite the loss at Newcastle in midweek. Pep Guardiola’s side should be ahead of Liverpool, and be top the table. If they can maintain these figures then winning the Premier League should still be well within their grasp.

Arsenal enters the fixture with Manchester City after claiming a sixth successive home win against Cardiff City, a result which moved Unai Emery’s side into fourth spot on goal difference above Chelsea.

The Gunners defiance of their expected goal statistics this season is due to the quality of their strikers. In Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette, Arsenal possess two of the most efficient attackers in European soccer.

Given previous form in recent seasons, Arsenal have done unexpectedly well against the top six so far, particularly when they have home field advantage. In four games at Emirates Stadium against Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham and Chelsea, the Gunners have gained 7 points from a potential twelve, but face arguably the hardest fixture of the season on Sunday.

Away from home, Arsenal have not picked up a win in their last 5 away games in the Premier League, losing three of those matches. A surprising statistic shows that 82% of Arsenal’s away games this season in the Premier League have produced over 2.5 goals, with 64% of these games producing four goals or more.

Defence has been the highlighted issue so far and the Gunners have conceded exactly 2 goals per away games this season, and they are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home in the Premier League – a worrying sign entering a fixture with the highest scoring team in the league.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal betting: Where is the value?

The over/under Total is set at 3.5 and the evident value here is to bet on under 3.5 goals, at odds of 1.980*. With Manchester City priced as short as 1.366, bettors should be cautious of the favourite-longshot bias that could be priced into the market around a fixture like this, and Arsenal are more than capable of competing with the champions providing they get their tactics correct.

A bet which could offer greater value is the Arsenal +1.5 and +2 handicap at 1.900*. Both sides like to keep possession and this could create a possession based match in which fewer big chances are created.

The away side are available at 9.00* to win, and given their defensive problems coupled with injuries to key players, this price seems a reflection of this. For bettors looking to alternative markets, both teams’ score in 75% of games involving Arsenal this season with the average percentage of games in which both teams score in the Premier League being around 55%. Manchester City maintain the highest expected goals’ statistics in the league, so these statistics highlight that the probability of both teams scoring in this fixture is high.

Throughout the Premier League season, you can find value in corners bettingbetting on cards or use an expected goals model to inform your betting.

*Odds subject to change



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Chris McCarthy
0percent soccer